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US Open: Rafael Nadal as big winner of draw?

Rafael Nadal caught an extremely good draw at the US Open. Easier than that of its direct competition?

by Michael Rothschädl
last edit: Aug 26, 2022, 02:47 am

Rafael Nadal starts the US Open as number two
© Getty Images
Rafael Nadal starts the US Open as number two

Boris Becker found wise words in the run-up to the Australian Open this year. You don't have to count Rafael Nadal among the absolute top favourites, but you shouldn't write off the bull from Manacor. Now the situation before the US Open is of course completely different - despite physical problems, the Spaniard is far fitter than before the first major event of the year - and yet, given Nadal's mediocre preparation, the same applies in Flushing Meadows: Man is well advised not to downplay the chances of the 22-time Grand Slam winner to win the title in New York City.

This is especially true after the publication of the draw for the US Open 2022. Because they opened up a scenario for the Spaniard in which Nadal could definitely get in shape from round to round to his liking. In any case, first-round opponent Rinky Hijkata, only present in New York City thanks to a wildcard, as current number 198 is the perfect start for Nadal to regain self-confidence after the first-round defeat in Cincinnati against eventual champion Borna Coric.

Nadal with two early exams

A Rafael Nadal at operating temperature will be needed in round two when it comes to Fabio Fognini or Aslan Karatsev. Nadal has 13 wins against the Italian, but has also lost four times in 17 duels. Of course, the 35-year-old is just as far from his top form as the Russian Karatsev. Against the current world number 38. it would be the first duel in Nadal's career. The Spaniard would be the clear favorite in both cases.

This also applies to a possible encounter with Miomir Kecmanovic, who has repeatedly shown strong performances - only too rarely at Grand Slam level. Which is why the 36th in the world rankings, against whom Nadal has been able to win the two previous duels without losing a set, could hardly become a serious stumbling block for the Mallorcan on the way to the historic 23rd major title. Diego Schwartzman and Frances Tiafoe - possible opponents of the Spaniard's round of 16 - should still be a little far away from that. Schwartzman has shown a moderate performance on North American hard court so far, while Tiafoe seems to lack the weapons to put Rafael Nadal in serious trouble in Grand Slam mode.

Revenge against Alcaraz?

The same can probably be said of Cameron Norrie, who recently celebrated the biggest win of his career against Carlos Alcaraz. The Brit is Nadal's scheduled opponent in the quarter-finals, but in 2022 he had to recognize the 36-year-old's playful class on hard court without envy: in the final in Acapulco, where Nadal clearly won in two sets. So where we would already be in the semi-finals, with the probably first, potentially very difficult task for Nadal: compatriot Carlos Alcaraz.

Although he has been looking meticulously for the form of spring in the past few weeks, with the powerful game, the strong backhand and the self-confidence of having already won against Nadal, a hot dance is probably inevitable. If it comes to that, because: Alcaraz could meet the Cincinnait champion Borna Cric in round three and would have to take revenge in a possible quarter-final against Jannik Sinner for the last two defeats in a row.

Another title aspirant, Daniil Medvedev, number one in the world and defending champion in New York City, could have to deal with Nick Kyrgios in the round of 16: the man who was able to disenchant the world number one in Montreal. And Stefanos Tsitsipas: he could meet Matteo Berrettini in the round of 16, who was a little out of shape recently, but is still playing a very excellent calendar year 2022. One thing is certain: no one else from the group of absolute top favorites has caught it as well as Rafael Nadal. Which makes it seem like it's been prepared for a great run by the Mallorcan. As big as 22 times before?

by Michael Rothschädl

Friday
Aug 26, 2022, 10:14 am
last edit: Aug 26, 2022, 02:47 am